Vivian Salama: Steve, let's dig into the economic impact that this war has had already in less than three weeks of fighting.

Roughly one fifth of the world's crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Steve Inskeep: Yes.

Vivian Salama: We haven't really seen the strait kind of come to a halt like this.

There were some disruptions in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war.

But, really, it's at a level that we haven't seen, and we're in a midterm election year.

Steve Inskeep: Yes.

Vivian Salama: Talk to us a little bit about those dynamics.

You know, obviously the White House is concerned, and there's no question about it.

Steve Inskeep: Yes.

Vivian Salama: How does that manifest itself?

Steve Inskeep: A couple of important points.

The White House did make this very public move of releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve.

But as I understand it, that reserve can release 1 to 2 million barrels of oil per day.

Oil is a global market, 100 million barrels a day, something like 20 million has stopped, only 1 or 2 million coming in, some others from other millions from some other countries.

But we're way short, which means that shortages will compile over time, will build up over time, and that means prices going up.

People have already noticed higher gas prices.

When I talk to people, there are people who do not follow politics, who actively say, I don't want to pay attention to politics, but they notice their gas price.

I want to add another point about this.

Americans support the military, support their country, support their country in times of urgency and war.

And I'm sure that Americans would put up with a degree of sacrifice, but nobody has asked them to do so.

The president has yet to address the nation in a formal way.

He's done some social media posts and talked to a lot of reporters, but has not asked the nation for anything particularly.

And we've discussed at this table how it's not entirely clear what the strategic aims of the war are.

And although the administration has cast Iran is having fired the first shot over 47 years in the sense of this war, the administration started it, and so the public is being asked to pay a higher and higher price and they were not given a reason why.

And they weren't consulted in advance and Congress did not go on record in favor of this, as has been the case in many other conflicts, even if there was not a formal declaration of war, there was usually some kind of vote.

Vivian Salama: I'll stay with you for one more question because, you know, you had a fascinating interview with Senator Ron Johnson about a week ago, where he was almost reluctant to say that Congress would vote on an issue like this, where there's so much division within Congress on a war that is now -- American troops are dying in.

Steve Inskeep: Yes, it was striking.

I mean, the Republicans voted down the war powers resolution, the war powers law, that would've put limits on the president.

Okay, that's one thing.

But my question for Senator Johnson was, since you favor the war, which Senator Johnson does, should there be an affirmative vote of Congress for this, as there was with the Iraq War, as there was with the Persian Gulf War and a lot of others that we could name?

And he said, no, we shouldn't do that because that would show our divisions.

And that is striking for a couple of reasons.

One of them being, even when there's been a closely divided Congress, they had a vote, like the Persian Gulf War, 1990, 1991.

But also he's acknowledging it would be a tough vote in Congress to prevail.

Vivian Salama: Right.

Mark, you've spent a lot of time reporting across the region, especially in the Gulf where you and I were passing ships at some point.

Talk to me about the Arab Gulf countries in particular.

You know, they were no friend to Tehran and had a lot of tension with Iran over the years, and some of them have even normalized relations with Israel, but they are really getting hit hard in recent days.

Talk about how that's been impacting those countries and the GCC -- Mark Mazzetti: Well, it's -- yes.

It's not only strikes against American bases in the region.

It's commercial hubs in the Gulf.

It's tourist areas, it's skyscrapers, it's hotels, it's hitting them hard.

And they are in a bind because they -- many of these countries have not -- have very -- have a lot of animosity towards Iran, yet -- Vivian Salama: They've equipped themselves especially for -- Mark Mazzetti: They've managed to deal with Iran over the years.

Vivian Salama: Yes.

Mark Mazzetti: And they don't love the regime, but they don't love chaos in the region.

And especially if you look back to October 7th and the number of wars that have gone on in the Middle East, in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Iran, the Arab countries in the Gulf are really in a bind.

And you can see a point where if this goes on longer, that there's more and more pressure from the Gulf on Washington and the Israelis to wrap this up.

So, we'll start looking at that.

Vivian Salama: And do you think that, you know, this bodes well for especially Saudi Arabia's attentions to possibly normalize with Israel when it seems that, you know, on the one hand, their interests are along the same lines, on the other hand, divergent in terms of the impact this is having on the region?

Mark Mazzetti: It is hard to see any prospect of that anytime in the future.

I think it was close actually before October 7th, because, effectively, the Palestinians were put to the side.

But when you see what's happened since October 7th and in Gaza and what is Israel is doing as part of the war in Iran, it is hard for the Saudis for even an autocrat like Mohammad bin Solomon to sell to the Saudi public that he should normalize relations with Israel.

So, I think we're a long way away.

Vivian Salama: And so Felicia, just to kind of conclude here, we have about 30 seconds left.

What's next for President Trump in terms of where he takes this, how he sells this to the American people?

Felicia Schwartz: I think either he escalates tremendously or he finds some sort of off-ramp.

I think most of the diplomats I talk to suggest that there will be a time to talk and that even though, you know, the new supreme leader might be the most radical person yet, he is someone who would be credible to end it.

So, we'll see.

Vivian Salama: Definitely something that we're going to have to watch very closely.

Thank you so much.

We're going to have to leave it there, but thank you to our guests for joining me and thank you at home for watching.