Presentation of Idaho Reports on Idaho Public Television is made possible through the generous support of the Laura Moore Cunningham Foundation, committed to fulfilling the Moore and Bettis family legacy of building the great state of Idaho.

By the Friends of Idaho Public Television and by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Davlin: This week's election saw big wins for Republicans across the nation, and Idaho was no exception.

That includes a huge defeat for proposition one.

I'm Melissa Davlin at the University of Idaho campus in Moscow.

Idaho Reports starts now.

Hello and welcome to Idaho Reports.

This week, Latah County GOP Precinct Committeewoman Cindy Aguidius, Latah County Treasurer BJ Swanson and University of Idaho's Markie McBrayer join me to discuss the week's election results, Prop One's defeat, and the implications for policy moving forward.

But first, on Tuesday, Idaho Reports caught up with U.S.

Senators Jim Rich and Mike Crapo at the Idaho GOP election night watch party in Meridian, where associate producer Logan Finney asked about Risch's pending Foreign Affairs Committee chairmanship and Crapo's pending Finance Committee chairmanship now that Republicans once again have the majority in the U.S. Senate.

Crapo: If the Senate does go Republican, I would be able to become the chairman of the Finance committee, which is, I think, probably the most powerful committee in the Senate.

It has control and jurisdiction over our tax code, over our international trade, and over all of the health care entitlements and over Social Security.

Critical issues to Americans across the board.

In 2017, when President Trump was president and there was a Republican and Democrat I meant Republican Senate and House, we passed landmark tax cuts that resulted in the strongest economy, the greatest economic growth that we've seen in our lifetimes.

Those tax cuts are going to expire next year.

And if we don't extend them, then you're going to see a $4 trillion tax increase.

Jim Risch: I worked with him, when I was chairman of the committee before.

He is very strong on, international matters.

He says he's going to end the two wars we've got.

When he says something like that, count on it.

He'll get it done.

And uh, you've got to give him the space to do it.

But I, I'm I'm confident and I'm hopeful that he can get that done.

Davlin: Markie, for Idaho having a relatively small population, we have two pretty powerful senators in the US Senate right now.

McBrayer: Yes, and they are ranking members currently because they're in the minority party.

But, like, they will go on to now chair the committees because the Senate will have flipped to the Republican Party.

Now, something to be noted with both of these, if you're unfamiliar with the committees at all, you can see that with the Foreign Relations Committee which Risch is going to chair and many of our students get to intern on, which we're very excited about, they typically handle things like tariffs, international treaties, including things with relation to the United Nations.

And then Crapo oversees, is going to oversee, the committee that does a lot of work on things like taxes, tariffs, even the financing for Medicaid and Medicare.

So, yes, for being a very small state, we have two senators who are going to be in very powerful positions in the Senate moving forward.

Davlin: And Cindy, you worked for Senator Crapo in the past.

Agidius: That's correct.

And I couldn't be more excited to have both these gentlemen back in leadership roles in the Senate.

Idaho is unique in that perspective.

We are such a rural state.

And to have these gentlemen in place to help bring a rural perspective to some of the solutions that we see that happen in Washington, DC, simply just as something like water.

In New York, when they talk about water, they're talking about what comes out of the tap.

In Idaho, we're talking about groundwater and great big rivers.

They're really a big difference.

And so to have these gentlemen in place, it not only is a great honor, but it's exciting to see that they all bring a rural perspective to this.

Davlin: Treasurer Swanson, it's been, I think, 14 years since Idaho was last represented by a Democrat in this district in the U.S. House.

How does it change for local issues when we have a Democrat versus a Republican representing Idaho in DC?

Or does it matter that much, considering a lot of our Democrats have been fairly conservative compared to their colleagues from other states?

Swanson: Well, our Democrats have been conservative.

In fact, right now conservative, or a moderate Republican is probably not on the cards anymore.

But I would look at this as, yes, Idaho does have power, but the mandate that the voters gave Idaho tells everyone that they're in line with President Trump.

So there's a very powerful mandate there for Senator Crapo and Senator Risch to do what that power directs them to do.

I would expect that the wars would end, but that would be with unfunding Ukraine, and more funding for Israel, which I would look at that as kind of a disaster.

Maybe that's not what most people want.

But also, are we going to pull out of NATO?

Are we going to pull out of the Paris climate accord?

And I guess as a Democrat, those things are important to me.

It's not the world power struggle, but it's what affects Americans.

And also on the Banking Committee, I would be very fearful that we will see the end of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, too.

Davlin: Something we will surely keep an eye on.

Back here in the Gem State, Idaho Republicans won big on election night with Proposition One's defeat at the top of that list.

The proposal to get rid of party primaries and introduce ranked choice voting in the general election failed statewide, with 60% of Idahoans voting no.

That was a plus for House Speaker Mike Moyle.

Moyle: Hallelujah.

I hope it sinks.

We don't need that out of state money and the less than truthful advertising about it.

It didn't open the primaries.

It was ranked choice voting.

The keyword there is rank.

It really stinks.

Davlin: Proposition One was so unpopular, in fact, that more people voted no than voted for President-elect Donald Trump.

Not just the percentage, that's the total number of raw votes.

Cindy, what do you think was the biggest factor in Proposition One's resounding defeat?

Agidius: Well, I think that the message that started out pushing for that was ingenuous.

Disingenuous, excuse me.

They talked about it being opening the primaries, and that wasn't just what that was about.

When they discovered what ranked choice voting was, how complicated it was, how expensive it was.

You know, the GOP pushed against it right away.

But then a lot of people fell in line right after.

When they had all the facts, they were done with it.

And we have seen a lot of states across the country who have had it and enacted it and were repealing it.

And so, you know, a lot of people got that information, and so that is why I think it ended up where it was.

Davlin: And Treasurer Swanson, I wanted to get your take on what happened on Tuesday night with Prop One.

Swanson: Well, I would have to agree with Cindy on that, that the messaging was from the Republicans, that I think they knew that their positions might have been in danger with the open primary.

So they picked up on the weakest part, which was the ranked choice voting, and they really carried a good message with that, a very strong message.

That it was complicated.

It was expensive.

We didn't need it.

I feel it was too big of a move.

If there could have been some modification to open the primaries and leave the ranked choice voting alone, it may have had a better chance to succeed.

Davlin: And that's interesting that you bring that up, because legally, I'm wondering if they could tell the private parties, the Idaho Republican Party and the Idaho Democratic Party how to handle their individual primaries, especially after the Ysursa a lawsuit from 2012 dealing specifically with the closed primaries.

Swanson: I think they could have done enough research to figure out how to get that done, which they didn't.

They just thought that the open primary would be a popular issue and it would have passed.

So I think they were probably lacking on the research to get to open the primaries.

Davlin: Markie, Cindy touched on this, but nationwide ranked choice voting didn't have a very good day on Tuesday in the places where it was on the ballot.

McBrayer: Yeah, in I believe five out of six states it failed.

D.C. is the one where it passes.

Open primaries also did not do well.

I think in the three states that it was on the ballot, it fails too.

That being said, we know from polls out of Boise State that the open primary component was more popular with a plurality of support for it.

I think 49%, something like that, compared to the ranked choice element.

And that really speaks to Cindy's point, that it does come across to many voters as confusing.

And so that likely deterred them in many ways as well.

Davlin: At the end of the day, a lot of Idahoans are concerned about how much gas costs, how much groceries cost.

Do they understand how closed primaries or open primaries even affect their ability to vote in May in the first place?

Agidius: You know, I think they do.

There's a lot of Republicans who aren't overly excited.

They didn't think that the closed primary was necessary.

The thought there was that we had Democrats voting for the weakest Republican candidate in a primary.

And that apparently happens in some places across the state.

But as a state that is so incredibly red, I don't think that that really was a problem.

But they've got it closed now and they want to keep it that way.

And it bothers a lot of people to have to go in and register as a Republican when they think they're an independent, or if they're a Democrat who wants to vote in the Republican primary.

That really bothers them that they have to declare one way or the other.

I know both Democrats and Republicans who resent having to tell anybody what they are, because they consider it personal.

Davlin: You represented this area in the first legislative, after the first legislative primary that was closed, after the Republican Party chose to close it.

You were in the House from 2012 to 2014.

What was your view on how it affected your primary election and running and representing Moscow?

Agidius: You know, I didn't have anybody run against me in the primary, so I didn't have any problem with that.

But, you know, I just didn't think it was necessary.

I really didn't.

I believe in a two party system.

It may not be the best.

I'm open to other ideas, but I believe that I have.

I believe that Republicans have the right to have a Republican represent them, and the Democrats have the right to choose who they want to represent them.

And I think there's a lot of people who feel that way.

And they don't want to have anything get in the way of that.

And when outside parties play with that, it has a tendency to get everybody's ire up.

Davlin: In the Legislature, Republicans picked up two seats in the House and one in the Senate.

In District 26, Mike Pohanka ousted Democratic Rep. Ned Burns.

In that same district, Democratic Sen. Ron Taylor and Republican Jack Nelsen fended off challengers, keeping that district purple.

In Pocatello's District 29, Democratic Rep. Nate Roberts lost his seat to Tanya Burgoyne.

Republican Rep. Dustin Manwaring kept his seat, and Democratic Sen. James Ruchti was unchallenged.

In Boise's District 15, Democratic Sen. Rick Just lost to former Rep. Cody Galloway, while Democratic Rep. Steve Berch kept his seat and Republican Rep. Dori Healey kept hers.

Our team caught up with Senator Just and Democratic candidate Shari Baber before results came in, as well as Ada County Republican Chairman Thad Butterworth about outreach to District 15 voters.

Rick Just: I ran in the first place to protect Idaho's public lands.

But as you get in to the legislature, of course, a lot of other things pop up.

And this time around, I think the big issue coming up in the legislature will be school vouchers for private and religious schools.

I'm against that.

My opponent is for it.

A lot of out-of-state money poured into our race, particularly, for school vouchers.

Baber: I think that public money should be spent in public education.

If you want private education, you should pay for it.

Buttersworth: We have had people out knocking doors, handing out campaign literature.

It's been a really solid effort.

I will tell you that having worked with all of those candidates personally, they have worked the hardest you've ever seen.

I mean they’ve done an incredible job.

And they've had a great army of volunteers helping them as well.

Davlin: Here in District 6, all three Republican incumbents kept their seats, with the closest race being between Sen. Dan Foreman and Democratic challenger Julia Parker.

Treasurer, I wanted to get your take.

This is the second legislative session or second legislative race in a row after redistricting, that Moscow will be represented by three Republican lawmakers.

How much of that is because redistricting put Moscow in with the Lewiston area and Lewis County?

And how much of it is a change in what voters want from their legislative delegation?

Swanson: Well, redistricting was certainly a factor in this.

Prior to redistricting, we were with Benewah County, and I know a lot of Latah people were dissatisfied with Benewah County.

So they kind of welcomed going with Lewis, Nez Perce and that area.

But I think we quickly found out that that was much more conservative than Benewah County and very hard to win for any Democrat.

We always think that Moscow and Latah County could carry someone.

In this case, it wasn't true.

There were coattails of Donald Trump and they were very evident in the state of Idaho.

Davlin: What do you think the factors are, Cindy?

Agidius: I think that the elections reflected the dissatisfaction that the people have with what has happened with our economy.

It's been driven by high fuel prices, bringing up the cost of goods.

And even though we have seen some improvement in gas prices, we aren't seeing our groceries come down.

People are struggling, and they're very unhappy seeing their tax dollars spent on illegal immigrants coming across the border.

And that played all the way down the ticket.

I heard more about that than anything else, from people who are just very angry seeing their money spent on people who shouldn't be in this country.

So, you know, how far that, how much that had play?

It's hard to say.

But the voter turnout being 86% in this county, they wanted to see a change.

Davlin: I don't know that Democrats can take for granted that college towns will be blue moving forward.

After some of the results that we saw on Tuesday night from places like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania and some of the turnout that we saw from young male voters, in particular, who went Republican.

McBrayer: Yeah, we are we are seeing shifts to the right among younger voters, particularly men.

That being said, there are some subsets of that population which don't necessarily quickly break right.

It could be college educated men who are less likely to, that kind of thing.

That being said, to Cindy's point, there are larger structural factors that we call in political science the fundamentals.

Like economics do matter, even further down the ballot.

And I will note when it comes to Idaho specifically, not necessarily District 6, we know that people who move in are more conservative, right?

They were more likely to identify as Republican than those who were here maybe a decade ago.

And so we are likely seeing that present itself in elections.

And there is a good body of scholarship on what housing prices do to policy preferences.

And we know that when home prices increase, and we have experienced drastic home price increases in the state.

Davlin: Everywhere in the state.

McBrayer: Yes.

Yeah.

Like over the past decade, that is also associated with a move to the right on policy preferences.

So in some ways there are some like structural things like economics, housing that are likely affecting these voting outcomes as well.

Agidius: And Melissa, can I just add to that?

You know.

Davlin: Yes.

Agidius: I have seen the Republican Party in this county in particular, just explode.

The kind of money that we have available to us, the kind of volunteer base we've had for us, these people work their tails off, in ways that I haven't seen in a long, long time.

And they are a younger demographic, most definitely.

Davlin: Have you at the same time seen the Democratic Party in Latah County shrink or stay the same size?

Swanson: I think the Democratic Party has also grown, but I believe they're probably off track.

Instead of focusing on strategy, finding and recruiting the best candidates, helping those candidates with debating, public speaking, that fire in their belly that I didn't see them have.

I can't tell you how many times I heard, well, they couldn't find anyone else.

That's a sign of weakness.

And it came back to haunt them this time.

They need to change.

I think this, the outcome of this election was a slap in the face.

I hope they can take that and really regrow themselves, because that's very necessary.

Davlin: When you say they, are you talking about the state party or the national party?

Swanson: Probably state and local.

Davlin: Just two additional Republican seats in the House and one more in the Senate might not seem like a big deal in a state where Republicans already had the supermajority, but on Tuesday, Idaho Democratic Party Chairwoman Lauren Necochea and House Speaker Mike Moyle discussed the implications of those margins on public policy moving forward.

Necochea: Our Democratic caucus makes a difference on so many issues, whether it comes to fighting back vouchers, whether it comes to protecting Medicaid expansion or protecting the Launch scholarships that are literally launching our high school seniors into good jobs with good wages like nursing and welding.

And these are jobs that employers really need.

All of those great policies really hinge on us having enough Democrats in office to get through those tight, tight margins.

A majority of Republicans voted to defund Launch scholarships after graduating seniors had their, you know, award letter in hand.

They had their plan for their future, and a majority of Republicans were going to break that promise to them.

Moyle: 6, 15, 26 and 29, we uh, the Speaker PAC, my, my PAC, we spent a lot of money to help those Republicans.

I would like to take some of those seats back from the Democrats.

It will help me with some of the committees if some of them are gone, where we can, you know, help populate them with good conservative Republicans.

So hopefully we we have an impact there and we can take some seats from the Democrats.

But we’ll see.

Nothing personal, they're nice people.

But I like Republicans better.

Davlin: So even with the small numbers that the Democrats already had in the Legislature, they do make a difference, especially in the House, on those big votes.

And I imagine that that's going to affect, especially public funding for private schools moving forward in this next legislative session.

Is that something that you heard much about at the Republican state convention this past summer?

Agidius: I did not hear a lot about it, but it is certainly true.

When I was in the Legislature, we wouldn't have passed Obamacare had it not been for the Democrats.

But there were significantly more Democrats then.

There were 13 in the House, and now we're down to 9, and that.

Davlin: Real quick, that was the health insurance, the state health insurance exchange.

Agidius: Us running our own particular program, yes.

And so, they do make a difference when there's something that's controversial like that.

I think that the House is significantly more conservative than it was when I was there.

So it, it might be a very interesting legislative season coming in.

Swanson: It was a struggle, maintaining the Launch program and other issues last year.

And now that there are more numbers of Republicans, and that empowerment, I think you're going to see an end of the Launch program.

You're going to see cuts or elimination of Medicaid expansion, probably the voucher and tax credit system for funding private schools will be implemented.

And that will also include less funding for public schools.

Tax cuts that will benefit the wealthy and corporations.

And they did that last year with HB 521.

And that will even be more.

And really what that has done, it's shifted the tax burden from the wealthy and corporations off to middle class, middle class and low class.

And I think you're going to see more of that, failure to institute the homeowners exemption is a prime example.

We're struggling right now with getting our taxes out, because everything depends on soft money, and soft money is that annual thing that the Legislature can control.

So that's a serious concern with us.

Davlin: National and state elections weren't the only sites of red waves.

In county elections across the state, Democrats also lost ground.

Latah County and Teton County, both currently represented by three Democrats on their commissions, will each now have two Republicans and one Democrat.

Blaine County is currently the only county commission left in the state with three Democrats.

The rest are Republicans, except for an independent who won in Butte County on Tuesday.

Over the past 15 years, Democrats have lost county commission seats in former strongholds like in Clearwater and Shoshone counties.

That's despite a recent push to put in more party infrastructure for county and legislative seats from the statewide party.

Necochea: Part of our strategy is making sure we have a Democratic county party in every county.

And then this and we did that last year.

And then this year, the stake in the ground that we put was to have a Democrat running in every legislative district, so that every voter in Idaho would be able to vote for a Democrat for the legislature.

Bennett: When you lose that badly with that much money and those quality of candidates, it doesn't get much better than Julia Parker, a sitting city councilwoman from Moscow, a registered nurse in an era where health care is highly contentious and they got beat, that is going to devastate their candidate recruitment in the future, Davlin: Treasurer Swanson, I wanted to ask if you agreed with that statement.

Is it going to be harder for Latah County Democrats to recruit legislative candidates moving forward?

Swanson: With the defeat that we had?

Yes, it is.

I guess I'm looking at that also on the coattails of Trump.

He had 3 or 4 years with his messaging.

It was strong.

A lot of it was false.

A lot of the things he said are not going to benefit the people that voted for him.

It's like people voted for him, but they voted against their best interests.

For example, tariffs.

I'm sure we're going to see tariffs.

Well, what that equates to is a higher sales tax.

It's a sales tax, basically.

He wants to do away with income tax, put it on sales tax.

Who does that affect?

Mostly it's the lower and middle income class again.

So that messaging, if the Democrats are able to show, "you voted for this, but did it benefit you?"

The answer is going to be no.

But how, what's the messaging on the other side?

The Democrats really have to pay attention to what that messaging is, and how to counteract it, or they will lose again.

Davlin: What would you like to see from the statewide and national parties?

Swanson: I think stronger leaders, stronger leaders and say, we can do this.

A lot of the Democrat organizations that I've seen are a great social party.

They're a lot of fun.

They have parties for Democrats, but there are no one there from the other party.

So that message doesn't get out there.

They're very inclusive, but they need to get out there and listen to the people.

The people spoke this time.

They really need to listen to that.

Davlin: Markie, earlier you brought up the public policy survey.

It's an annual survey from Boise State University that that asks Idahoans what their policy priorities are and what their concerns are, from all walks of life all over the state.

And a lot of times, we don't often see the results of that survey, what Idahoans care about, align with what the Legislature does.

And at the same time, we have Republican lawmakers and candidates winning resoundingly every general election.

Do, I guess, what does that tell you about the disconnect between what people are saying they want and what the lawmakers are doing?

McBrayer: So there is actually a body of scholarship on this, about like the disjuncture between people's preferences and then the kinds of policies that are enacted.

And in fact, and it's a little bit old, it's like from 2015.

There is overall a disjuncture and it tends to lean more conservative.

So in other words, states tend to have more conservative policy on average than what voters would prefer.

And this is likely still true today.

That being said, I think we are actually in an era right now that really likes to punish the incumbent party, whichever party that is, right?

Like in 2020, Trump also was punished, right.

In 2024, Biden was punished.

And so in 2028, to the points of other people here, if people are displeased in 2028, you could also probably expect the incumbent to be punished again.

So we're not in an era necessarily of like blind loyalty, right?

Like people, if people are dissatisfied, they will punish the incumbent party.

Davlin: We have about 30 seconds left.

What are you looking forward to or interested in for this upcoming legislative session?

Agidius: Well I think there's an awful lot of pressure on the Republican Party right now.

We look like we're going to have a clean sweep in Washington.

And if that is the case, we have a huge responsibility.

And I think people are going to expect us to get things done and put aside personal differences and fulfill the will of the public mandate.

So, we are going to have to get on it and get to work.

Davlin: All right.

Former Representative Cynthia Aguidius, Latah County Treasurer BJ Swanson, Markie McBrayer of University of Idaho, thank you so much for joining us.

And thank you for watching.

Also, our thanks to University of Idaho broadcast students for helping us with this production.

We'll see you next week.

Presentation of Idaho Reports on Idaho Public Television is made possible through the generous support of the Laura Moore Cunningham Foundation, committed to fulfilling the Moore and Bettis family legacy of building the great state of Idaho.

By the Friends of Idaho Public Television and by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.