>>> IS IDAHO NOW THE REDDEST OF RED STATES?

MIGHT BE AFTER THIS WEEK'S ELECTION.

WHAT WENT RIGHT FOR THE REPUBLICANS SO TO SPEAK AND WHY DID DEMOCRATS SUFFER LOSSES?

WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE ELECTION RESULTS WITH THE LEADERS OF BOTH THE DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN PARTIES IN IDAHO AND WE WILL TAKE YOUR PHONE CALLS.

STAY TUNED.

"DIALOGUE" IS NEXT.

>>> HELLO AND WELCOME TO "DIALOGUE."

I'M MARCIA FRANKLIN.

REPUBLICANS SCORED BIG VICTORIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON ELECTION NIGHT AND IDAHO WAS NO EXCEPTION.

EVERY STATEWIDE OFFICE IS NOW HELD BY THE GOP, WHICH ALSO PICKED UP FIVE SEATS IN THE IDAHO STATEHOUSE AS WELL HERE TO TALK ABOUT THE VOTE COUNT ARE NORM SEMANKO, CHAIR OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND KEITH ROARK, CHAIR OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

WELCOME TO BOTH OF YOU.

>> THANK YOU.

>> A BIT MORE ABOUT MY GUESTS IN ADDITION TO THEIR DUTIES AS CHAIRMAN OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PARTIES THEY ARE BOTH ATTORNEYS AND BOTH HAVE RUN FOR OFFICE.

MR.

SEMANKO IS GENERAL COUNSEL OF THE IDAHO WATER USERS ASSOCIATION.

IN 2006, HE RAN AS A REPUBLICAN FOR THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, BUT LOST IN THE PRIMARY ELECTION.

MR.

ROARK IS THE FOUNDER AND SENIOR PARTNER OF ROARK LAW FIRM, WITH OFFICES IN HAILEY AND TWIN FALLS.

HE IS A FORMER PROSECUTOR AND MARRY OF HAILEY.

HE WAS THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL AND LOST TO THE CURRENT ATTORNEY GENERAL.

THESE ARE TWO INDIVIDUALS WHO KNOW BOTH SIDES OF THE ELECTIONS BUSINESS AND THEY ARE HERE TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS OR YOUR COMMENTS.

CALL IS TOLL FREE AT 1-800-973-9800.

FIRST, TO YOU, MR.

SEMANKO, IS IDAHO NOW THE REDDEST OF THE RED STATES IN 23 YOU LOOK AT, IF WE TAKE AS AN ARBITER, STATEWIDE OFFICES AND LEGISLATURE.

>> MARCIA, IN SOME WAYS IT'S LIKE ANSWERING THE BULL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES OF WHO'S REALLY THE NUMBER ONE TEAM IN THE COUNTRY BUT CERTAINLY THERE'S ONLY A SELECT FEW STATES THAT HAVE ALL OF THEIR CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION REPUBLICAN, ALL OF THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICERS REPUBLICAN.

IDAHO AND WYOMING FIT THAT.

81 OF IDAHO'S LEGISLATURE IS REPUBLICAN.

84% OF WYOMING'S LEGISLATURE IS REPUBLICAN.

SO THEY MAY CLAIM TO BE A LITTLE MORE RED THAN US BUT WE ARE BOTH IN THAT SAME CATEGORY AND THERE'S A SLEW OF OTHER STATES THAT ARE RIGHT BEHIND, UTAH, OKLAHOMA AS WELL.

>> OK.

LET'S START WITH ONE OF THE BIG RACES, THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL.

MR.

ROARK, TWO YEARS AGO YOU WERE HERE ON THIS VERY SET WITH YOUR SAME COUNTERPART AND YOU ARE VERY HAPPY ABOUT THE WIG BIN, WALT MINNICK IN THE U.S.

HOUSE.

THE NUMBERS FROM THIS ELECTION ARE MUCH DIFFERENT.

WE CAN PUT THEM UP ON THE SCREEN.

LET'S LOOK AT THE GRAPHIC.

RAUL LABRADOR TOOK THIS RACE, 51% TO 41% OVER MR.

MINNICK.

BEFORE WE TALK ABOUT WHY THIS MIGHT HAVE HAPPENED, MR.

SEMANKO, I AM GOING TO PLAY A QUOTE FROM YOU FROM TWO YEARS AGO, AGAIN, ON THIS "DIALOGUE" PROGRAM SOMETHING THAT YOU SAID IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS RACE.

>> WHAT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING, TRYING TO MOVE FORWARD HERE A LITTLE BIT, IS THE DEMOCRATS NOW HAVE FIRM CONTROL OF CONGRESS, NOT QUITE FILIBUSTER PROOF IN THE SENATE BUT CLOSE.

AND THEY ARE GOINGO HAVE THE PRESIDENCY.

SO SOMETIMES BE CAREF WHAT YOU ASK FOR.

TOTAL RESPONSIBILITY AND WHATEVER HAPPENS, GOOD OR BAD, THEY ARE GOING TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE.

>> SO AGAIN, THAT WAS TWO YEARS AGO.

YOU LOOK PRETTY MUCH THE SAME, BY THE WAY.

CONGRATULATIONS.

IN YOUR SENSE, NOW, IS WITH MR.

MINNICK'S LOSS DUE TO DISCONTENT WITH PRESIDENT BARAC?

WHEN YOU WIN, YOU WIN BIG LIKE THE DEMOCRATS DID LAST TIME, AND YOU ARE HELD ACCOUNTABLE.

OR DO YOU THINK IT WAS SOMETHING ELSE?

>> WELL, I CERTAINLY THINK IT WAS A COMBINATION OF THINGS.

THE ECONOMY IS BAD.

AND RAUL LABRADOR VERY FIRMLY TALKED ABOUT THE NEED FOR JOBS, FOR IROVING THE ECONOMY.

MADE THE CASE THAT OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS WHILE WALT MINNICK HAS BEEN IN CONGRESS WE HAVE NOT SEEN THOSE JOBS.

AND HE CONSTANTLY, RAUL DID, SAID, WHERE RIGHT JOBS, MR.

MINNICK?

THAT WAS A BIG PART OF IT.

ALSO WHEN WALT WAS ELECTED HE DIDN'T HAVE A RECORD IN CONGRESS.

NOW HE HAS A VOTING RECORD.

THERE WERE SOME VOTES THAT RAUL WAS ABLE TO POINT AT IN TERMS OF THE RECORD.

THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT THE PHENOMENON OF FIRE PELOSI ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THE NOTION THAT WE NEED A CHANGE IN CONGRESS, AND TYING WALT MINNICK'S VOTE FOR NANCY PELOSI AS SPEAKER HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH IT AS WELL.

>> WHAT'S YOUR SENSE OF WHY YOUR CANDIDATE LOST?

>> IT'S HARD TO APPEAR ON THE SAME PROGRAM WITH A PROPHET.

I HAVE TO SAY NORM WAS FAIRLY PROPHETIC IN OUR LAST SESSION.

WHEN UNEMPLOYMENT HOVERS BETWEEN NINE AND 10%, FOR TWO YEARS, THEN, THE PARTY IN POWER IS GOING TO PAY FOR IT.

THAT WAS NO DIFFERENT THIS YEAR THAN AT ANY OTHER YEAR, WHERE UNEMPLOYMENT HAS BEEN AT LEVELS THAT HIGH.

AND I THINK WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THAT WAS REALLY THE ONLY ISSUE.

>> YOU DON'T THINK IT WAS THE DISTRICT ITSELF?

GOVERNOR OTTER, WHEN HE WAS IN THIS CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, WHEN HE WAS A CONGRESSMAN, HE WON BY 70%.

SO PERHAPS THIS IS JUST A REPUBLICAN DISTRICT AND NO MATTER WHO RUNS, AND MAYBE MR.

MINNICK GOT ELECTED BECAUSE PEOPLE DIDN'T LIKE MR.

SAL LEY AND SOMEBODY IS ALWAYS GOING TO WIN WHO IS REPUBLICAN.

>> IT HISTORICALLY HAS BEEN A REPUBLICAN DISTRICT, NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT.

HOWEVER, LARRYLER OFLTCCO SERVED FROM THAT DISTRICT FROM 1990 TO 1994.

THIS WAS NOT THE FIRST DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMAN TO REPRESENT THAT DISTRICT.

WHAT I AM SUGGESTING HERE IS THAT WALT MINNICK HAD A VOTING RECORD WHICH WAS VERY CENTRIST, IN FACT, RIGHT OF CENTER, AND ON THE THREE BIG ISSUES ABOUT WHICH MOST PEOPLE COMPLAINED, HE VOTED WITH THE REPUBLICANS.

>> IN FACT, SOME DEMOCRATS COMPLAINED HE WASN'T DEMOCRATIC ENOUGH FOR THEM.

>> NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.

WE HAVE PEOPLE IN OUR PARTY WHO WERE VERY OFFENDED AT SOME OF THOSE VOTES.

BUT WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, UNEMPLOYMENT WAS TOO HIGH FOR ANY MEMBER OF CONGRESS SERVING IN A BASICALLY REPUBLICAN DISTRICT AS A DEMOCRAT TO SURVIVE.

>> WHAT ABOUT THE NEGATIVE ADS?

THAT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE?

THE NEGATIVE ADS THAT MR.

MINNICK STARTED RUNNING?

>> WELL, CERTAINLY WE SAW A WHOLESALE REJECTEDDION BY IDAHO VOTERS IN THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT OF THE NEGATIVE ADS THAT WALT MINNICK FOR WHATEVER REASON CHOSE TO RUN WITH REGARD TO THE IMMIGRATION ISSUE AND OTHER ISSUES, AND FOLKS ACTED VERY NEGATIVELY TOWARD THOSE, AND I THINK THAT DID HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE 10-POINT MARGIN AT END OF THE DAY.

>> IF NEGATIVE ADS HAD ANYTHING TO DO WITH THIS ELECTION, KEITH ALLRED WOULD BE GOVERNOR TONIGHT.

I DIDN'T LIKE THE NEGATIVE ADS ON EITHER SIDE.

I DON'T THINK THAT THE LEVEL OF NEGATIVESY -- >> MEANING THERE WERE NEGATIVE ADS AGAINST KEITH ALLRED BY THE IAK.

>> THE REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS ASSOCIATION POURED $400,000 IN THE FINAL WEEKS OF THE ELECTION INTO THE CAMPAIGN FNLT IT WAS USED FOR NEGATIVE ADS VERY MISLEADING ADS.

BUT I AM NOT GOING TO TRY TO DEFEND ANY NEGATIVESY IN POLITICAL CAMPAIGNING.

I THINK IT'S GOTTEN OFF THE HANDLED.

UNFORTUNATELY, AND NORM KNOWS THIS TO BE TRUE, WHILE MOST PEOPLE DECRY NEGATIVE ADS, IN MANY INSTANCES, THEY HAVE PROVED TO BE VERY, VERY EFFECTIVE.

SO WHEN THE VOTERS FINALLY WAKE UP TO WHAT'S GOING ON, I THINK WE WILL SEE A CHANGE.

UNTIL TN WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF NEGATIVESY IN CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING.

>> THERE ARE DIFFERENT KINDS OF QUOTE-UNQUOTE NEGATIVE ADS AND WHEN IT'S A COMPARATIVE AD, WHEN YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT SOMEONE'S RECORD, HOW THEY VOTED ON SOMETHING, DO YOU AGREE WITH SOMEONE THAT VOTES THAT WAY, THAT'S FAIR GAME.

PEOPLE MAY NOT LIKE THAT YOU ARE FOCUSING ON THE NEGATIVE BUT TAKING QUOTES OFF THE CONTEXT, THE KINDS OF THINGS WALT DID IN HIS ADS THAT BY ANY BIASED INDEPENDENT OPINION SAID THAT'S WRONG, THAT'S NOT ACCURATE.

THAT'S THE KIND OF AD THAT REALLY I THINK TURNS PEOPLE OFF.

>> WE DON'T KNOW WHAT EFFECT IF ANY THOSE ADS HAD.

CERTAINLY THE MISREPRESENTATION OF RECORDS AND THE MISQUOTING WENT ON IN THE OTTER ADS TO JUST AS GREAT IF NOT A GREATER EXTENT THAN THE MINNICK SITUATION.

>> LET'S MOVE ON FROM THE ADS.

I WANT TO ASK YOU, MR.

SEMANKO, ACCORDING TO THE GOP REALLY FOCUSED ON THESE BLUE DOG DEMOCRAT THIS IS YEARINGS SAW THEM AS EASY TARGETS, I.E., WHY SHOULD A REPUBLICAN VOTE FOR A CONSERVATIVE DOIP WHEN THEY COULD -- DEMOCRATIC?

>> I CAN TELL YOU PERSONALLY FROM GOING TO WASHINGTON, D.C.

FROM TALKING TO FOLKS AT THE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE, TO MY GOOD FRIEND AND LAW SCHOOL CLASSMATE MICHAEL STEELE AT THE RNC, THE PROBLEM FOR REPUBLICANS, THERE WERE SO MANY RACES IN PLACE WE HAD A HARD TIME WHICH ONE TO FOCUS OFNLT IT WASN'T JUST BLUE DOGS, IT WAS DEMOCRATS ACROSS THE BOARD.

>> LET ME ASK YOU HOW MUCH EFFECT YOU THINK THE TEA PARTY HAD, THE TEA PARTY EXPRESS PUT OUT A PRESS RELEASE SATISFYING BECAUSE MINNICK REJECTED THEIR ENDORSEMENT, THAT ACCOUNTED IN PART FOR LABRADOR'S WIN AND I BELIEVE WE HAVE MR.

LABRADOR TALKING TO DO TEA PARTY EARLY ON IN HIS CAMPAIGN.

HOW MUCH EFFECT DO YOU THINK THE TEA PARTY FOLK HAVE?

>> NONE.

NO, I REALLY DO NOT.

THE TEA PARTY, IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT AN IDEA, THEN, YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT A GROUP OF VOTERS THAT MAY IDENTIFY THEMSELVES WITH THE TEA PARTY.

IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE TEA PARTY AS AN ORGANIZATION, AS A STRUCTURE, THEY'RE NOT A PARTY.

THEY HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH TEA.

MANY OF THEIR LEADERS ARE FORMER MEMBERS OR CURRENT MEMBERS OF THE JOHN BIRCH SOCIETY.

I DON'T BELIEVE THAT THEY HAD ANYTHING TO DO WITH THIS ELECTION.

>> I LOVE TO HEAR THIS BECAUSE TEA PARTY FOLKS AND TEA DOESN'T STAND FOR T, IT STANDS FOR TAXED ENOUGH ALREADY ARE ALREADY DAY IDAHOANS.

I WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT CROWD.

IMPEACH COMING OFF OF WORK, PEOPLE WITH THEIR KIDS.

THEY WERE FRUSTRATED, THEY ARE UPSET WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND COMING OUT AND THEY ARE MOTIVATED VOTERS AND WE EMBRACE THEM.

WE LOVE HAVING THE TEA PARTY INVOLVED.

>> LET ME SAY THIS, MARCIA.

THE SO-CALLED TEA PARTY, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE REALLY AT HEART OF THE TEA PARTY, DON'T REPRESENT A DANGER TO THE DEMOCRATS LONG TERM.

THEY DO REPRESENT A DANGER, THEM HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER BY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

>> LET ME ASK YOU, MR.

ROARK, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF RAUL LABRADOR, OUR NEW CONGRESSMAN?

>> WELL, I KNOW RAUL.

I HAVE WORKED WITH HIM BEFORE.

HE'S A GOOD BUSINESSMAN.

I THINK HE'S A GOOD LAWYER.

NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT.

I THINK SOME OF HIS BELIEFS ARE POSITIVELY BIZARRE, REPEALING THE 17th AMENDMENT IS SOMETHING THAT STRIKES FOR IN MY HEART -- TOR IN MY HEART.

HE IS GOING TO BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE BILL SALLEY CONGRESSMAN THAN HE IS, FOR INSTANCE, A LARRY CRAIG WHEN LARRY CRAIG WAS IN THAT JOB.

BUT I CAN'T PREDICT WHAT HE IS GOING TO DO OR WHAT ISSUES ARE GOING TO SURFACE.

I AM SURE THAT HE WILL DO HIS BEST WITH HIS PHILOSOPHICAL LIMITATIONS TO REPRESENT THE DISTRICT.

>> ALL RIGHT.

LET'S GET A CALL IN FROM CECELIA IN BOISE.

GO AHEAD, PLEASE.

>> YES.

I WOULD LIKE TO INQUIRE THAT, SINCE WE LIVE IN A CAPITALIST NATION, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE FOR THE TWO PARTIES TO EVER GET ALONG WHEN BOTH ARE CONCERNED MAINLY WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF MONEY, THE DEMOCRATS WANT IT SPREAD OUT, AND THE REPUBLICANS WANT IT CONTROLLED?

HOW CAN WE ALL GET ALONG WITH EACH OTHER IF THAT'S THE SITUATION WE ARE FACING?

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH, CECELIA.

THERE ARE BASIC PHILOSOPHICAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PARTIES.

WHAT'S YOUR SENSE?

OR PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, NATIONALLY NOW, PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT THIS A LOT.

HOW RIGHT PARTIES GOING TO GET ALONG ESPECIALLY AFTER SUCH A RANCOR RUSS ELECTION.

>> IT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY STANDS FOR NEIGHBOR OF THINGS.

DEMOCRAT PARTY STANDS FOR OTHER THINGS.

CAN WE GET ALONG?

WE ARE GOING TO SEE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WITH OBAMA.

IS HE GOING TO WORK WITH THE NEW MAJORITY IN THE ?OWS OR IS HE GOING TO TIN TO ADVOCATE THE POLICIES REJECT BY THE AMERICAN PEOPLE?

THAT WILL DEFINE THE 2012 ELECTION, I THINK.

>> YOUR SENSE OF GETTING ALONG?

>> WELL, THINGS VARY FROM YEAR TO YEAR.

CONGRESS TO CONGRESS.

I THINK DURING THE YEARS 1995 UP UNTIL 2006, THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITIES IN CONGRESS WENT OUT OF THEIR WAY TO BE VILE AND RANCOROUS.

I DON'T THINK WE HAVE SEEN THAT IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS BUT I THINK NORM HAS A POINT.

WHEN YOU HAVE A PRESIDENT WHO HAS AT LEAST ONE HOUSE OF CONGRESS THAT IS CONTROLLED BY THE OTHER PARTY, YOU HAVE A VERY TENSE SITUATION.

THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT CAN'T BE PRODUCTIVE.

I AGREE WITH NORM.

I THINK IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS WE WILL HAVE A SENSE WHAFT EMOTIONAL TEMPERATURE WILL BE.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT SOMEBODY WHO SAID HIS MAIN PART OF HIS CAMPAIGN WAS INJECTING CIVILITY INTO PUBLIC AND POLITICAL LIFE AND THAT WAS KEITH ALLRED.

TALK ABOUT THE GUBERNATORIAL RACE.

WE HAVE A GRAPHIC THAT SHOWS THE RESULTS HERE.

DEMOCRATS WERE QUITE EXCITE BUD HE ONLY GOT 147,000 VOTES OR SO, 32.8%.

IN 2006, JERRY BRADY GOT, I LOOK BACK, 199,000, 41.4 HERS.

WHAT HAPPENED HERE?

PEOPLE WERE VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS CANDIDATE.

>> THAT'S A DISAPPOINTMENT.

THERE'S NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.

BECAUSE KEITH ALLRED BROUGHT TO SOMETHING TO TOWER POLITICS AND HE DID LOOSE AND HE LOST BADLY, NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.

BUT HE WAS HIT BY THE SAME TSUNAMI THAT HIT DEMOCRATS IN IDAHO.

HISTORICALLY YOU NEED TO REMEMBER, DEMOCRATS DO BADLY IN PRESIDENTIAL YEARS, AND OFF YEAR ELECTION WHEN THE DEMOCRAT IS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

THIS FALLS INTO THE SECOND CATEGORY.

AND CONSEQUENTLY, WHAT WE SAW HERE IN 2010 WAS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW IN 1994.

IT'S HARD TO GET AROUND, VERY HARD.

>> WHAT DID YOU THINK OF THIS CANDIDATE?

>> I DON'T THINK WE HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO GO INTO DETAIL BUT A COUPLE OF THINGS.

NUMBER ONE, BUTCH OTTER IS A TREMENDOUSLY POPULAR PUBLIC FIGURE IN IDAHO.

THAT'S NUMBER ONE.

NUMBER TWO, IF THE CHANGE TO WASHINGTON WAS TO CHANGE COURSE, THE MIDGE TO HEED WAS TO STATE COURSE.

MAKE THOSE TOUGH DECISIONS AND THE THIRD THING IS, KEITH ALLRED, I KNOW HIM PERSONALLY, DID THE GREAT JOB HE COULD, HE DOESN'T HAVE ANY POLITICAL EXPERIENCE.

HE REALLY WAS COMING FROM NOWHERE, AND JUST WAS NOT ABLE TO GET UP TO THE LEVEL, NOBODY COMING OFF THE BENCH FOR THE DEMOCRATS THAT COULD RUN A REALLY CREDIBLE CAMPAIGN.

I THINK THAT WAS A MAJOR, MAJOR FACTOR IN THIS RACE.

>> IT'S ALWAYS INTERESTING AND AMUSING WHEN I HEAR A REPUBLICAN TALK ABOUT POLITICAL EXPERIENCE.

SO MUCH OF THE REPUBLICAN PLATFORM, SO MUCH OF THE REPUBLICAN MESSAGE IS, WE NEED PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT CAREER POLITICIANS, NOBODY IN THIS RACE HAS SPENT AS MUCH OF HIS LIFETIME DRAWING GOVERNMENT CHECKS THAN BUTCH OTTER.

AND SO TO TALK ABOUT EXPERIENCE, I THINK BEGS THE ISSUE.

>> I NEED TO ASK YOU, BEFORE WE TAKE ANOTHER IF PHONE CALL, BOTH MR.

MINNICK AND MR.

ALLRED IN SOME WAYS DISTANCED THEMSELVES FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, WANTING TO SEEM MORE INDEPENDENT, MR.

MINNICK SAYING HE WAS INDEPENDENT WITH DEMOCRATIC BACKING.

HOS DEMOCRAT BECOME A DIRTY WORD?

WHY DIDN'T THESE CANDIDATES WHO WERE RUNNING AS DEMOCRATS WANT TO COME OUT AND SAY, HEY, I'M A DEMOCRAT?

>> A DIRTY WORD MAY BE MUSHING IT A LITTLE TOO FAR.

THERE IS THIS ISSUE OF MESSAGING.

THERE'S THIS ISSUE OF BRANDING AND I THINK THE WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS THAT THE NATIONAL BRAND, WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY POPULAR IN IDAHO, HAS RUBBED OFF ON TO OUR STATE WIDE AND LOCAL CANDIDATES, AND I HAVE TO ADMIT THAT HAVING THE D BESIDE YOUR NAME IS A DISTINCT DISADVANTAGE AT THIS TIME IN THE STATE OF 40EDZ.

>> LET US TAKE A CALL FROM GLEN GO AHEAD, PLEASE.

>> I WANTED TO THANK YOU FOR TAKING MY CALL.

AND I WAS WANTING THE TWO GUESTS THOUGHTS ON A STATE LIKE IDAHO, FOR INSTANCE, BECOMES A STATE.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE TRANSITION IS?

AS WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER THERE HAVE BEEN DEMOCRATS ELECTED FROM THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, GOVERNOR ANDRUS WAS A DEMOCRAT, THERE WAS A LOT OF TIME WHEN NORTH IDAHO VOTED DEMOCRATIC.

WHAT DO YOU THINK TURNS THE TIDE AND MAKES THE STATE BECOME A REPUBLICAN STATE?

>> WHEN BUTCH OTTER AND I CONVENED THE UNITY CALL A COUPLE MONTHS AGO WITH ALL OUR CANDIDATES, WE EMPHASIZED THAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY STANDS FOR CERTAIN THINGS, FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, FOR LIMITED GOVERNMENT -- >> WHAT MAKES THE TURN.

>> FOR PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY.

WHAT MAKES THE TURN IS THAT IDAHOAN AGREE WITH THAT.

WHEN THEY UNDERSTAND THE PARTY STANDS FOR THOSE PRINCIPLES, THAT'S WHAT MAKES IDAHO BECOME A REPUBLICAN STATE.

NOW -- >> YOU AND I HAVE TALKED ABOUT THIS BEFORE.

>> THERE ARE OTHER THINGS WITH REGARD TO NORTH IDAHO WITH NO DOUBT, IN THE EARLY 19 NEANLTS, THERE WAS A SPLIT IN MY VIEW BETWEEN LABOR AND ENVIRONMENTALISTS PARTICULARLY IN THE LEWISTON AREA.

EVER SINCE THEN YOU HAVE SEEN VERY TOUGH FOR DEMOCRATS TO WIN IN NORTH IDAHO.

>> BECAUSE THE LABOR, THE FORESTERS IN PARTICULAR PERCEIVE THE ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS WERE BEING HARD ON THEM.

>> THE LUNCH BUCKET DEMOCRATS LEFT THE FOLD AND WENT TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

>> WHAT'S YOUR SENSE?

IS IT, SOME PEOPLE SAY IT'S PEOPLE MOVING IN FROM CALIFORNIA WHO ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE WHO HAVE MADE IDAHO AN EVEN REDDER STATE.

>> SEVERAL FACTORS ONE EVER WHICH NORM CORRECTLY IDENTIFIED.

KNUCKLE ONE WHEN THE REPUBLICANS MANAGED TO GET RIGHT TO WORK PASSED, THEY DEALT A VERY SERIOUS, ALMOST DEATH BLOW TO ORGANIZED LABOR.

AND THAT WAS VERY HARD ON THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

SECONDARILY, A LOT OF THOSE LUNCH BUCKET JOBS HAVE SIMPLY DISAPPEARED.

THE MINDS AND THE MILLS DO NOT EMPLOY ANYWHERE NEAR THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THEY ONCE D FOREST INDUSTRIES INCLUDING MILLS AND THE LUMBER JACKS, THAT HAS CHANGED.

THE INFLUX PARTICULARLY IN NORTH IDAHO, THE NEW POPULATION TENDS TO BE VERY CONSERVATIVE.

THEY'RE PEOPLE WHO IN LARGE MEASURE HAVE MOVED FROM URBAN AREAS, THEY LIKE THE LANDSCAPE BECAUSE IT SHOWS THEM LOW PROPERTY TAXES, AND LOTS OF WHITE FACES.

THAT HAS CHANGED THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF NORTH IDAHO AND IT'S BEEN VERY, VERY HARD ON THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

>> I WISH THIS SHOW COULD BE LONGER BUT IT'S NOT.

LET'S MOVE ON BECAUSE THESE ARE SUCH INTERESTING ISSUES.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE SUPERINTENDENT RACE REAL BRIEFLY BETWEEN LUNA AND OLSON.

TOM LUNA PULLING IT OUT HERE.

DEGETTE MORE VOTES THAN EVEN BUTCH OTTER?

>> HE DID.

THERE WASN'T AN INDEPENDENT IN THIS RACE LIKE THERE WAS IN THAT RACE.

>> SO WHEN HE FIRST STARTED RUNNING, HE DIDN'T SEEM TO BE VERY WELL RESPECTED AND NOW LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS.

FORMER SUPERINTENDENT OF THE SCHOOL DISTRICT DOWN HERE HAD A GOOD REPUTATION.

TRADITIONALLY DEMOCRATS HAVE COME OUT IN NUMBERS TO VOTE FOR THEIR CANDIDATE FOR SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION.

ANY THOUGHTS HERE?

>> WELL, THE LONGEST SERVING SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION WAS JERRY EVANS, A REPUBLICAN.

WE HAVE DONE A LITTLE BETTER IN THAT RACE BUT FOR ONLY EIGHT YEARS DID WE CONTROL THE RACE IN THE LAST 20.

THIS IS A BIG DISAPPOINTMENT TO ALL OF US BECAUSE STAN OLSON IS AN EDUCATOR, HE IS A WELL RESPECTED ADMINISTRATOR, TOM LUNA NEVER TAUGHT SCHOOL, NEVER WAS PRINCIPAL, NEVER WAS IN ADMINISTRATION.

IT JUST IS A SAD DAY FOR IDAHO'S SCHOOL CHILDREN, WHETHER GET TO 263,000 VOTES OR HE WON BY THREE VOTES, I THINK IT'S A DISAPPOINTMENT.

>> WELL, I WOULD COMPLETELY DIFFERENT VIEW ON IT.

TOM LUNA HAS DONE A PHENOMENAL JOB OVER THE LAST FOR YOU YEARS WITH A VERY BAD ECONOMY IN RAISING THE TEST SCORES OF IDAHO SCHOOL CHILDREN.

AND THIS RACE WAS REALLY DEFINED AS AN ADVOCATE FOR SCHOOL CHILDREN AND PARENTS VERSUS AN ADVOCATE FOR THE TEACHERS UNIONS AND THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH ON THE TEACHER UNION SIDE TO CARRY SOMEONE TO VICTORY.

>> OK.

LET'S TAKE A BRIEF LOOK AT THE SENATOR CRAPO'S RACE.

HE WON, NO SURPRISE THERE ALTHOUGH SOME HAVE COMPLIMENTED HIS OPPONENT FOR HIS DEBATING SKILLS AND HIS EFFORTS, TOM SULLIVAN.

LET'S MOVE ON TO THE CONGRESSMAN SIMPSON'S RACE.

HE ALSO WON.

I DON'T THINK THAT WAS A SURPRISE.

HE'S GOING TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF POWER, WILL HE NOT, IN THE CONGRESS RIGHT NOW?

HE IS FRIENDS WITH JOHN BOEHNER, HE IS ON THE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

>> CHAIR A SUBCOMMITTEE.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

A WINNER ON THE NATIONAL SCENE.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

MIKE SIMPSON AND MIKE CRAPO BOTH DO PHENOMENALLY GOOD CONSTITUENT WORK FOR IDAHOANS.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT MR.

SEMANKO BEING A PROPHET.

TWO YEARS AGO ON THIS SHOW YOU SAID YOU WERE GOING TO TARGET DISTRICTS 16 AND 18, THAT THOSE WERE DISAPPOINTMENTS TO YOU PERSONALLY.

AND IT APPEARS THAT YOUR PREDICTION AT LEAST IN DISTRICT 18 CAME TRUE.

LET'S LOOK AT SOME LOCAL RACES HERE.

AND FOR STATE SENATOR IN DISTRICT 18 WHICH IS KELLY'S FORMER SEAT, MITCHELL TORYANSKI HAS WON OVER BRANDEN DURST.

AND FOR STATE REPRESENTATIVE IN DISTRICT 18, BRANDEN DURST'S FORMER SEAT, JULIE ELLSWORTH AND JANE WARD-ENGELKING ARE NECK AND NECK.

THIS IS AN AUTOMATIC VOTE RECOUNT.

YOU SAID YOU WOULD WORK ON DISTRICT 18, YOU DID.

>> DISTRICT 18 IS VERY COMPETITIVE.

IT WAS VERY CLOSE LAST TIME.

IT WAS VERY CLOSE THIS TIME.

THERE WERE OTHER DISTRICT THAT IS WE FOCUSED ON AROUND THE STATE BUT CERTAINLY 18 WAS BIG.

>> LET ME SAY THIS.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THIS RACE IS THAT THE NEW VOTERS THAT BARACK OBAMA IN 2008 DIDN'T SHOW UP FOR US THIS TIME.

>> I BELIEVE THAT'S WHAT YOU SAID TWO YEARS AGO MIGHT HAPPEN.

>> AND THE PEOPLE WHO SHOW UP TO VOLT AGAINST BARACK OBAMA WERE THERE THIS TIME.

SO WE LOST IN THE SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20,000 VOTES.

I THINK, YES.

BUT FOR THAT FACT, THESE RACES, WHICH ARE COMPETITIVE, NORM IS CORRECT, THEY WOULD HAVE TBON TO DEMOCRATS.

I THINK THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMPETITIVE AND I THINK THAT'S THE WAY IT IS.

I WISH ALL 35 DISTRICTS IN THE STATE WERE COMPETITIVE.

I THINK OUR POLITICAL LIFE, THE BODY POLITIC ITSELF WOULD BE MUCH BETTER OFF IF THEY WERE.

>> LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT A FEW MORE LOCAL RACES, STATE REPRESENTATIVE FROM DISTRICT 2 POSITION A, MARY LOU SHEPHERD LOST TO SHANNON McMILLAN.

I KNOW THIS WAS A SURPRISE TO EVEN YOU, NORM.

YOU TOLD ME EARLIER -- >> GIVEN THE REPUBLICAN WAVE IT'S NOT NECESSARILY MARY LOU SHEPHERD LOST AND SHANNON McMILLAN WON.

IT'S THE 10% MARGIN THAT REALLY BOWNGSED OFF THE PAGE AT ME ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

>> LET'S PUT THAT GRAPHIC BACK UP AGAIN.

GEORGE SAILOR'S SEAT, ALSO A REPUBLICAN WON, KATHLEEN SIMMS.

ANY COMMENTS ON THESE?

>> AS TO MARY LOU, AND I MEANO DISPARAGEMENT HERE, BUT SHE IS LIVING PROOF OF THE FACT THAT IF YOU CALL YOURSELF A DEMOCRAT BUT YOU CONTINUE TO VOTE AS A REPUBLICAN, SOONER OR LATER, A REAL REPUBLICAN IS GOING TO COME ALONG AND BEAT YOU IN AN ELECTION.

>> LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT TWO OTHER LOSSES FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

STATE REPRESENTATIVE FROM DISTRICT 7, POSITIONA, JEFF NESSET, A REPUBLICAN, WON OVER AN INCUMBENT, LIZ CHAVEZ AND IN DISTRICT 29B, JIM GUT THEE TOOK -- >> THESE WERE TWO OF THE AREAS THAT WE TARGETED THIS TIME.

AND I WISH EVERY RACE COULD BE LIKE THE NESSET-CHAVEZ RACE, TWO WONDERFULLY POPULAR PEOPLE, VERY GOOD ADVOCATES AND IT CAME DOWN, NO NEGATIVE ADVERTISING, JUST CAME DOWN TO WHO FOLKS LIKED BETTER IN TERMS OF PHILOSOPHY.

I WISH ALL OF THE RACES COULD HAVE BEEN LIKE THAT.

>> YOU DID PICK UP A STAIN GAIN IN THE STATEHOUSE, MR.

ROARK, SENATOR SHOWEDDER'S OLD SEAT, TAKEN BY DAN SCHMIDT.

>> THAT PLOOFS MY POINT ABOUT THE TEA PARTY.

THAT IS A GIFTED TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BY THE TEA PARTY.

>> BECAUSE -- >> THEY TOOK OUT A GOOD REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, REPLACED HIM WITH A VERY WEAK CANDIDATE.

WE TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION.

WE HAVE ANOTHER SENATOR.

>> I AM SO GLAD TO HEAR KEITH ACKNOWLEDGE REPUBLICANS AS GOOD AT LEAST SOME OF THEM.

>> NORM, I HAVE ALWAYS ACKNOWLEDGED YOU.

>> THAT'S ALWAYS TOUGH.

WE ALWAYS HAVE CLOSE RACE UP THERE.

THAT WAS NOT REALLY A SURPRISE.

>> WE ARE LEFT WITH THE DEMOCRATS, THE HOUSE IS DOWN TO 57 REPUBLICANS AND DOWN TO 13 DEMOCRATS, SENATE STAYS THE SAME, 28 REPUBLICANS AND SEVEN DEMOCRATS.

YOU LOST FIVE SEATS OVERALL.

THE GALLATIN GROUP WHICH WAS FOUNDED IN PART BY GOVERNOR ANDRUS, A DEMOCRAT, SAID TODAY IN A RELEASE THAT IDAHO DEMOCRAT V. NOW GONE FROM BEING MARGINALIZED TO AN AFTER THOUGHT.

PRETTY TOUGH WORDS.

WHAT DO DEMOCRATS, WELL, WITH A MINUTE LEFT AND IT'S NOT EVEN REALLY FAIR.

WE WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE WEB EXTRA BUT WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE DEMOCRATS' RELEVANCE IN IDAHO?

>> THIS IS NOT THE LOWEST NUMBER OF SEATS THAT WE HAVE HAD.

BEV WENT DOWN FURTHER THAN THIS IN 2001, FOR INSTANCE.

THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT CAN BE DONE.

THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT WILL BE DONE.

BUT IF WE HAVE THIS SOUMAILA -- TSUNAMI OF ANTIADMINISTRATION VOTERS SHOWING UP ON A REGULAR BASIS, THEN, WHAT IS ALREADY A TOUGH JOB BECOMES NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

>> BUT YOU SEE, STILL SEE RELEVANCE FOR DEMOCRATS IN IDAHO?

>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.

WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PARTY OF CONSCIENCE, WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOUL WHERE WE SEE FOUL.

WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE RELEVANT.

WE ARE NOT GOING AWAY.

>> TWO THINGS, I CAN'T SPEAK ON BEHALF OF REPUBLICAN LEGISLATORS BUT I CAN TELL YOU THE DEMOCRATS THAT ARE IN THE LEGISLATURE ARE RESPECTED, THEY ARE PART OF THE PROCESS.

THEY ARE HEARD AND THE VOTES ARE TAKEN AND THE REPUBLICANS USUALLY WIN THE DAY BUT THEY ARE RESPECTED AND PART OF THE PROCESS.

SECOND THING IS I REMEMBER 1990.

AND I REMEMBER THE ELECTION NIGHT PARTY THAT NIGHT AND ONLY LARRY CRAIG AND LYDIA JUSTICE-EDWARDS WON THAT NIGHT.

THE DEMOCRATS WON EVERYTHING ELSE.

THINGS CAN CHANGE AND WE ARE NOT TAKING ANYTHING FOR GRANT GLD THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

AND FOR THOSE OF YOU HOLDING ON THE LINE WE WILL GET TO YOU IN OUR WEB EXTRA, WHICH IS STREAM LIVED BY THE WAY ON OUR INTERNET NOW, ON OUR WEBSITE.

I WANT TO THANK BOTH OF MY GUESTS TONIGHT, NORM SEMANKO AND KEITH ROARK.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANKS FOR TUNING IN TO "DIALOGUE."

>> PRESENTATION OF "DIALOGUE" ON IDAHO PUBLIC TELEVISION IS MADE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GENEROUS SUPPORT OF THE LAURA MOORE CUNNINGHAM FOUNDATION, COMMITTED TO FULFILLING THE MOORE FAMILY'S LEGACY OF BUILDING THE GREAT STATE OF IDAHO.

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